Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Gansu Engineering Consulting Group Co., Ltd. (000779.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.16 - $6.43$5.21
Multi-Stage$9.28 - $10.23$9.74
Blended Fair Value$7.48
Current Price$9.05
Upside-17.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.06%0.00%0.080.000.130.160.000.020.070.100.070.05
YoY Growth--1,651.16%-96.20%-23.29%18,484.55%-95.26%-74.53%-24.52%34.23%49.95%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.87%0.05%0.97%1.49%0.01%0.17%0.57%0.72%0.44%0.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)207.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)168.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.5225.9515.57
Cash Retained (M)168.20168.20168.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.52-25.95-15.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.68142.25152.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.84464.84464.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.16$5.21$6.43
Upside / Downside-54.05%-42.39%-28.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)207.62205.54203.48201.45199.43197.44203.36
Payout Ratio18.98%33.19%47.39%61.59%75.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.4168.2196.43124.08151.16177.70188.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)63.4564.1064.75
Year 2 PV (M)83.4485.1586.88
Year 3 PV (M)99.86102.95106.10
Year 4 PV (M)113.16117.85122.69
Year 5 PV (M)123.74130.18136.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,829.204,028.604,236.22
Equity Value (M)4,312.854,528.834,753.52
Shares Outstanding (M)464.84464.84464.84
Fair Value$9.28$9.74$10.23
Upside / Downside2.52%7.65%13.00%

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