DDM Analysis: 000419.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.23 - $1.68	$1.46
Multi-Stage	$2.24 - $2.47	$2.35
Blended Fair Value	$1.90
Current Price	$5.76
Upside	-66.98%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.59%	2.91%	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.15	0.02	0.16	0.02	0.12	0.02	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.15%	-6.25%	6.67%	544.14%	-85.45%	940.45%	-87.19%	500.02%	-80.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.32%	3.13%	2.69%	2.86%	0.50%	3.89%	0.29%	2.14%	0.25%	1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	128.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	123.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.70	16.06	9.64
Cash Retained (M)	123.86	123.86	123.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.70	-16.06	-9.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)	98.16	107.80	114.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	543.00	543.00	543.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.20	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.20	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	8.98%	8.98%	8.98%
Growth Rate	-5.59%	-4.59%	-3.59%
Fair Value	$1.23	$1.46	$1.68
Upside / Downside	-78.71%	-74.73%	-70.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	128.49	122.59	116.97	111.60	106.47	101.59	104.63
Payout Ratio	3.60%	20.88%	38.16%	55.44%	72.72%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4.63	25.60	44.63	61.87	77.43	91.43	96.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.98%	8.98%	8.98%
Growth Rate	-5.59%	-4.59%	-3.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	23.24	23.49	23.73
Year 2 PV (M)	36.80	37.58	38.37
Year 3 PV (M)	46.31	47.80	49.32
Year 4 PV (M)	52.62	54.89	57.22
Year 5 PV (M)	56.42	59.47	62.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)	998.25	1,052.25	1,108.57
Equity Value (M)	1,213.64	1,275.47	1,339.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	543.00	543.00	543.00
Fair Value	$2.24	$2.35	$2.47
Upside / Downside	-61.20%	-59.22%	-57.16%

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Changsha Tongcheng Holdings Co.Ltd (000419.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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