DDM Analysis: 000407.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.34 - $2.08	$1.68
Multi-Stage	$3.03 - $3.33	$3.18
Blended Fair Value	$2.43
Current Price	$3.49
Upside	-30.37%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.84%	0.00%	0.16	0.15	0.18	0.16	0.16	0.12	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	6.78%	-14.59%	8.13%	5.72%	33.55%	-7.97%	94.66%	-22.13%	-35.89%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.01%	4.64%	4.71%	4.24%	3.73%	3.23%	2.59%	1.09%	0.75%	1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	127.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	51.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)	76.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	25.52	15.95	9.57
Cash Retained (M)	76.40	76.40	76.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-25.52	-15.95	-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)	50.88	60.45	66.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	879.86	879.86	879.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	6.46%	6.46%	6.46%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.34	$1.68	$2.08
Upside / Downside	-61.50%	-51.77%	-40.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	127.59	126.32	125.05	123.80	122.56	121.34	124.98
Payout Ratio	40.12%	50.10%	60.07%	70.05%	80.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	51.19	63.28	75.12	86.72	98.08	109.20	115.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.46%	6.46%	6.46%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	58.84	59.44	60.04
Year 2 PV (M)	64.95	66.28	67.62
Year 3 PV (M)	69.71	71.87	74.07
Year 4 PV (M)	73.31	76.35	79.48
Year 5 PV (M)	75.90	79.85	83.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,320.56	2,441.40	2,567.22
Equity Value (M)	2,663.26	2,795.18	2,932.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	879.86	879.86	879.86
Fair Value	$3.03	$3.18	$3.33
Upside / Downside	-13.27%	-8.97%	-4.50%

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Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. (000407.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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