DDM Analysis: 000025.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.88 - $34.53	$16.31
Multi-Stage	$6.36 - $6.95	$6.65
Blended Fair Value	$11.48
Current Price	$17.54
Upside	-34.56%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.31%	0.84%	0.05	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.04	0.03
YoY Growth	-	-	-38.55%	51.69%	101.08%	-42.62%	154.48%	-52.90%	205.51%	-74.35%	63.15%	-34.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.25%	0.47%	0.26%	0.16%	0.28%	0.09%	0.15%	0.04%	0.13%	0.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	152.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	106.26

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30.43	19.02	11.41
Cash Retained (M)	106.26	106.26	106.26
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30.43	-19.02	-11.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	75.83	87.24	94.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	431.06	431.06	431.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.20	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.11	0.11	0.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.18	0.20	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.28	0.31	0.33
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%	8.52%	8.52%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$9.88	$16.31	$34.53
Upside / Downside	-43.70%	-7.00%	96.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	152.15	162.03	172.57	183.78	195.73	208.45	214.71
Payout Ratio	30.16%	42.13%	54.10%	66.06%	78.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45.89	68.26	93.35	121.42	152.73	187.61	198.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%	8.52%	8.52%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	62.32	62.91	63.50
Year 2 PV (M)	77.79	79.28	80.77
Year 3 PV (M)	92.36	95.01	97.72
Year 4 PV (M)	106.06	110.14	114.34
Year 5 PV (M)	118.93	124.67	130.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,282.27	2,392.50	2,506.96
Equity Value (M)	2,739.73	2,864.51	2,993.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	431.06	431.06	431.06
Fair Value	$6.36	$6.65	$6.95
Upside / Downside	-63.76%	-62.11%	-60.40%

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Shenzhen Tellus Holding Co., Ltd. (000025.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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