DDM Analysis: VASTB.BR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$20.47 - $30.10	$25.10
Multi-Stage	$37.37 - $41.17	$39.23
Blended Fair Value	$32.17
Current Price	$32.10
Upside	0.20%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.05%	5.67%	2.20	1.08	1.05	0.98	1.39	1.36	1.25	1.17	1.20	1.30
YoY Growth	-	-	104.45%	2.27%	7.32%	-29.31%	1.75%	8.78%	6.94%	-2.39%	-7.72%	2.65%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.49%	3.62%	3.45%	2.94%	5.12%	4.62%	2.54%	2.06%	2.36%	2.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	28.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1.75
(=) Cash Retained (M)	26.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.63	3.52	2.11
Cash Retained (M)	26.41	26.41	26.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.63	-3.52	-2.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	20.78	22.89	24.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	10.62	10.62	10.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.96	2.16	2.29
LTM Dividend per Share	0.17	0.17	0.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.96	2.16	2.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.12	2.32	2.45
WACC / Discount Rate	7.81%	7.81%	7.81%
Growth Rate	-2.31%	-1.31%	-0.31%
Fair Value	$20.47	$25.10	$30.10
Upside / Downside	-36.22%	-21.80%	-6.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	28.16	27.79	27.43	27.07	26.71	26.36	27.15
Payout Ratio	6.22%	22.98%	39.73%	56.49%	73.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1.75	6.39	10.90	15.29	19.57	23.73	25.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.81%	7.81%	7.81%
Growth Rate	-2.31%	-1.31%	-0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.86	5.92	5.98
Year 2 PV (M)	9.19	9.38	9.57
Year 3 PV (M)	11.83	12.20	12.58
Year 4 PV (M)	13.90	14.48	15.08
Year 5 PV (M)	15.48	16.29	17.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	340.37	358.15	376.67
Equity Value (M)	396.63	416.42	437.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	10.62	10.62	10.62
Fair Value	$37.37	$39.23	$41.17
Upside / Downside	16.40%	22.21%	28.25%

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Vastned Belgium (VASTB.BR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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