Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PJSC Transneft (TRNFP.ME)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$307,508.27 - $454,380.29$377,840.79
Multi-Stage$539,279.95 - $594,191.61$566,195.13
Blended Fair Value$472,017.96
Current Price$1,382.60
Upside34,039.88%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%17,719.9416,401.2110,331.280.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--8.04%58.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1,000.38%973.27%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)282,193.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)282,192.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56,438.7135,274.1921,164.51
Cash Retained (M)282,192.56282,192.56282,192.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-56,438.71-35,274.19-21,164.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)225,753.86246,918.37261,028.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7.257.257.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share31,141.2934,060.7936,007.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share31,141.2934,060.7936,007.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend31,141.4234,060.9336,007.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$307,508.27$377,840.79$454,380.29
Upside / Downside22,141.30%27,228.28%32,764.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)282,193.53279,371.60276,577.88273,812.10271,073.98268,363.24276,414.14
Payout Ratio0.00%18.00%36.00%54.00%72.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.9750,287.6599,568.61147,858.91195,173.45241,526.92255,683.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.92%7.92%7.92%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)46,124.5746,595.2247,065.88
Year 2 PV (M)83,765.3285,483.5487,219.20
Year 3 PV (M)114,093.33117,621.75121,222.17
Year 4 PV (M)138,135.23143,860.29149,761.49
Year 5 PV (M)156,790.65164,955.10173,456.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,370,516.223,546,026.823,728,773.84
Equity Value (M)3,909,425.324,104,542.734,307,498.77
Shares Outstanding (M)7.257.257.25
Fair Value$539,279.95$566,195.13$594,191.61
Upside / Downside38,904.77%40,851.48%42,876.39%

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