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Definitive Analysis

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Trelleborg AB (publ) (TREL-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$339.32 - $824.44$504.65
Multi-Stage$410.57 - $450.19$430.01
Blended Fair Value$467.33
Current Price$350.50
Upside33.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.65%6.26%7.036.626.445.890.005.605.305.014.714.42
YoY Growth--6.10%2.90%9.30%0.00%-100.00%5.57%5.90%6.27%6.59%15.44%
Dividend Yield--1.89%1.74%2.18%2.69%0.00%5.21%3.58%2.39%2.46%2.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,693.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,719.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,974.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)738.60461.63276.98
Cash Retained (M)1,974.001,974.001,974.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-738.60-461.63-276.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,235.401,512.381,697.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)230.09230.09230.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.376.577.38
LTM Dividend per Share7.477.477.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.376.577.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend12.8414.0414.85
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.65%3.65%4.65%
Fair Value$339.32$504.65$824.44
Upside / Downside-3.19%43.98%135.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,693.003,827.973,967.874,112.894,263.204,419.014,551.58
Payout Ratio46.55%55.24%63.93%72.62%81.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,719.002,114.492,536.602,986.743,466.393,977.114,210.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.65%3.65%4.65%
Year 1 PV (M)1,965.561,984.712,003.85
Year 2 PV (M)2,191.852,234.762,278.09
Year 3 PV (M)2,399.032,469.832,542.00
Year 4 PV (M)2,588.192,690.522,795.86
Year 5 PV (M)2,760.362,897.453,039.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)82,560.9186,661.3290,923.05
Equity Value (M)94,465.9098,938.59103,582.79
Shares Outstanding (M)230.09230.09230.09
Fair Value$410.57$430.01$450.19
Upside / Downside17.14%22.68%28.44%

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