Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $485.62 - $1,288.23 | $742.57 |
| Multi-Stage | $335.01 - $365.88 | $350.17 |
| Blended Fair Value | $546.37 | |
| Current Price | $933.64 | |
| Upside | -41.48% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 49.47% | 65.30% | 15.09 | 4.34 | 10.75 | 3.71 | 3.37 | 2.02 | 1.38 | 0.46 | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 247.41% | -59.57% | 190.02% | 9.93% | 66.63% | 47.06% | 196.34% | 326.05% | 4.33% | 5.38% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.14% | 0.76% | 1.90% | 0.82% | 0.64% | 1.60% | 0.52% | 0.27% | 0.12% | 0.22% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 476.39 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 147.79 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 328.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 95.28 | 59.55 | 35.73 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 328.60 | 328.60 | 328.60 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -95.28 | -59.55 | -35.73 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 233.32 | 269.05 | 292.87 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 23.01 | 23.01 | 23.01 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10.14 | 11.69 | 12.73 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 6.42 | 6.42 | 6.42 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10.14 | 11.69 | 12.73 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 16.56 | 18.11 | 19.15 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $485.62 | $742.57 | $1,288.23 |
| Upside / Downside | -47.99% | -20.47% | 37.98% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 476.39 | 507.36 | 540.33 | 575.46 | 612.86 | 652.70 | 672.28 |
| Payout Ratio | 31.02% | 42.82% | 54.61% | 66.41% | 78.20% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 147.79 | 217.24 | 295.10 | 382.15 | 479.28 | 587.43 | 621.86 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 197.25 | 199.12 | 200.99 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 243.30 | 247.93 | 252.61 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 286.09 | 294.30 | 302.67 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 325.79 | 338.32 | 351.21 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 362.56 | 380.07 | 398.26 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 6,294.08 | 6,598.09 | 6,913.73 |
| Equity Value (M) | 7,709.07 | 8,057.84 | 8,419.47 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 23.01 | 23.01 | 23.01 |
| Fair Value | $335.01 | $350.17 | $365.88 |
| Upside / Downside | -64.12% | -62.49% | -60.81% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL | Colgate-Palmolive Company | 2.88% | $2.24 | 62.40% |
| TCBK | TriCo Bancshares | 2.87% | $1.35 | 37.83% |
| 0U6R.L | Bunge Limited | 2.86% | $3.05 | 31.37% |
| FBMS | The First Bancshares, Inc. | 2.86% | $0.97 | 39.72% |
| RILYG | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.00% Senior Notes due 2026 | 2.86% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| CNS | Cohen & Steers, Inc. | 2.85% | $1.81 | 56.91% |
| MRBK | Meridian Corporation | 2.85% | $0.49 | 27.85% |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | 2.84% | $9.31 | 72.03% |
| BKH | Black Hills Corporation | 2.84% | $1.98 | 50.60% |
| GABC | German American Bancorp, Inc. | 2.84% | $1.11 | 40.35% |
| HOMB | Home Bancshares, Inc. | 2.84% | $0.79 | 34.17% |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | 2.84% | $1.96 | 65.04% |
| SBFG | SB Financial Group, Inc. | 2.84% | $0.61 | 28.02% |
| TSBK | Timberland Bancorp, Inc. | 2.84% | $1.00 | 27.24% |
| CATY | Cathay General Bancorp | 2.83% | $1.38 | 31.20% |
| CWT | California Water Service Group | 2.83% | $1.22 | 53.25% |
| EBIX | Ebix, Inc. | 2.83% | $0.08 | 46.85% |
| CMS-PB | Consumers Energy Company | 2.82% | $2.17 | 62.27% |
| EPRT | Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | 2.82% | $0.85 | 70.58% |
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding Company | 2.82% | $0.43 | 24.85% |
| VALSX | Value Line Select Growth Fund | 2.82% | $0.87 | 56.29% |
| CCNE | CNB Financial Corporation | 2.81% | $0.72 | 35.05% |
| ORRF | Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. | 2.81% | $0.98 | 26.05% |
| TXNM | TXNM Energy, Inc. | 2.80% | $1.65 | 86.75% |
| STC | Stewart Information Services Corporation | 2.79% | $1.95 | 54.56% |
| CVLY | Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc. | 2.77% | $0.67 | 28.98% |
| KKRS | KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4. | 2.77% | $0.49 | 7.61% |
| SHBI | Shore Bancshares, Inc. | 2.77% | $0.48 | 28.28% |
| HNNA | Hennessy Advisors, Inc. | 2.76% | $0.27 | 21.11% |
| HONE | HarborOne Bancorp, Inc. | 2.76% | $0.33 | 51.05% |
| KMT | Kennametal Inc. | 2.76% | $0.80 | 65.12% |
| PNM | PNM Resources, Inc. | 2.76% | $1.12 | 57.65% |
| HWC | Hancock Whitney Corporation | 2.75% | $1.77 | 31.35% |
| YOU | Clear Secure, Inc. | 2.75% | $0.95 | 50.89% |
| 0HE2.L | Ameren Corporation | 2.74% | $2.78 | 53.51% |
| MTDR | Matador Resources Company | 2.74% | $1.19 | 18.96% |
| OFG | OFG Bancorp | 2.74% | $1.12 | 25.13% |
| VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | 2.74% | $4.53 | 93.65% |
| YORW | The York Water Company | 2.73% | $0.87 | 62.37% |
| CCZ | Comcast Holdings Corp. | 2.72% | $1.63 | 26.92% |
| K | Kellanova | 2.72% | $2.27 | 62.18% |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | 2.71% | $0.22 | 29.95% |
| AVT | Avnet, Inc. | 2.71% | $1.34 | 48.46% |
| BKU | BankUnited, Inc. | 2.71% | $1.21 | 34.19% |
| CNOB | ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | 2.71% | $0.71 | 48.64% |
| GBX | The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | 2.71% | $1.28 | 19.40% |
| PBHC | Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc. | 2.71% | $0.38 | 26.39% |
| TRIN | Trinity Capital Inc. | 2.71% | $0.41 | 20.50% |
| RILYN | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.50 | 2.70% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| 0L5A.L | Sempra | 2.69% | $2.41 | 72.79% |