Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Tunas Alfin Tbk (TALF.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,166.77 - $4,171.00$3,908.84
Multi-Stage$650.44 - $712.03$680.67
Blended Fair Value$2,294.75
Current Price$300.00
Upside664.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.92%12.33%8.005.000.000.000.006.003.003.003.004.00
YoY Growth--60.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%100.00%0.00%0.00%-25.00%60.00%
Dividend Yield--2.94%1.60%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.48%0.99%0.79%0.77%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)28,385.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,827.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,558.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5,677.113,548.192,128.92
Cash Retained (M)17,558.0717,558.0717,558.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-5,677.11-3,548.19-2,128.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,880.9614,009.8715,429.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,353.441,353.441,353.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.7810.3511.40
LTM Dividend per Share8.008.008.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.7810.3511.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend16.7818.3519.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,166.77$3,908.84$4,171.00
Upside / Downside622.26%1,202.95%1,290.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)28,385.5530,230.6132,195.6034,288.3136,517.0538,890.6640,057.38
Payout Ratio38.14%48.52%58.89%69.26%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,827.4814,666.5218,958.8923,747.3129,078.1235,001.5937,053.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)13,665.5613,795.0913,924.63
Year 2 PV (M)16,459.3916,772.9017,089.36
Year 3 PV (M)19,209.4819,760.9120,322.80
Year 4 PV (M)21,916.3322,759.1723,626.09
Year 5 PV (M)24,580.4425,767.6927,000.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)784,491.95822,383.20861,724.64
Equity Value (M)880,323.15921,238.96963,687.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,353.441,353.441,353.44
Fair Value$650.44$680.67$712.03
Upside / Downside116.81%126.89%137.34%

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