DDM Analysis: OZL.AX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.52 - $70.16	$34.91
Multi-Stage	$20.45 - $22.39	$21.40
Blended Fair Value	$28.16
Current Price	$27.90
Upside	0.92%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013
DPS	5.65%	-4.50%	0.25	0.25	0.23	0.23	0.21	0.19	0.19	0.09	0.16	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	-2.72%	10.38%	-1.48%	9.91%	13.23%	-1.49%	110.42%	-42.40%	-45.05%	-26.97%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.88%	0.89%	1.21%	2.20%	2.40%	2.03%	2.40%	2.22%	4.48%	9.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	260.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	145.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	115.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	52.10	32.56	19.54
Cash Retained (M)	115.23	115.23	115.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-52.10	-32.56	-19.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)	63.13	82.67	95.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	320.37	320.37	320.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.26	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.45	0.45	0.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.26	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.65	0.71	0.75
WACC / Discount Rate	6.79%	6.79%	6.79%
Growth Rate	3.65%	4.65%	5.65%
Fair Value	$21.52	$34.91	$70.16
Upside / Downside	-22.86%	25.13%	151.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	260.48	272.60	285.29	298.57	312.47	327.01	336.82
Payout Ratio	55.76%	62.61%	69.46%	76.31%	83.15%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	145.25	170.68	198.16	227.82	259.82	294.31	311.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.79%	6.79%	6.79%
Growth Rate	3.65%	4.65%	5.65%
Year 1 PV (M)	158.30	159.83	161.36
Year 2 PV (M)	170.46	173.77	177.10
Year 3 PV (M)	181.77	187.08	192.50
Year 4 PV (M)	192.27	199.80	207.55
Year 5 PV (M)	202.00	211.94	222.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,645.96	5,923.61	6,212.07
Equity Value (M)	6,550.77	6,856.02	7,172.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	320.37	320.37	320.37
Fair Value	$20.45	$21.40	$22.39
Upside / Downside	-26.71%	-23.30%	-19.75%

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OZ Minerals Limited (OZL.AX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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