DDM Analysis: ORCH.L

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$21.71 - $43.27	$40.55
Multi-Stage	$6.56 - $7.19	$6.87
Blended Fair Value	$23.71
Current Price	$0.30
Upside	7,803.83%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.00	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-100.00%	-33.39%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	24.71%	71.32%	118.20%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	6.35%	7.23%	5.36%	5.09%	4.23%	3.92%	3.03%	2.51%	1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	0.93	0.58	0.35
Cash Retained (M)	4.22	4.22	4.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-0.93	-0.58	-0.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.29	3.64	3.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	21.35	21.35	21.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.17	0.18
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.17	0.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$21.71	$40.55	$43.27
Upside / Downside	7,137.41%	13,417.12%	14,323.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4.65	4.95	5.27	5.61	5.98	6.37	6.56
Payout Ratio	9.19%	25.35%	41.51%	57.68%	73.84%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.43	1.25	2.19	3.24	4.41	5.73	6.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.35%	6.35%	6.35%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1.17	1.18	1.19
Year 2 PV (M)	1.90	1.93	1.97
Year 3 PV (M)	2.62	2.69	2.77
Year 4 PV (M)	3.32	3.45	3.58
Year 5 PV (M)	4.02	4.21	4.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)	127.12	133.26	139.64
Equity Value (M)	140.15	146.73	153.56
Shares Outstanding (M)	21.35	21.35	21.35
Fair Value	$6.56	$6.87	$7.19
Upside / Downside	2,087.75%	2,190.53%	2,297.18%

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Orchard Funding Group plc (ORCH.L)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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