DDM Analysis: NOA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$58.19 - $241.65	$148.55
Multi-Stage	$28.86 - $31.58	$30.20
Blended Fair Value	$89.37
Current Price	$19.77
Upside	352.06%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.23%	17.60%	0.34	0.32	0.25	0.14	0.11	0.08	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	6.08%	29.09%	75.74%	28.92%	35.29%	26.42%	-8.19%	20.25%	-44.84%	56.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.48%	1.04%	1.09%	0.77%	0.80%	1.12%	0.40%	1.03%	0.87%	3.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	38.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.83

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.70	4.81	2.89
Cash Retained (M)	25.83	25.83	25.83
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.70	-4.81	-2.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.12	21.01	22.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	31.70	31.70	31.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.57	0.66	0.72
LTM Dividend per Share	0.40	0.40	0.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.57	0.66	0.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.97	1.06	1.12
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$58.19	$148.55	$241.65
Upside / Downside	194.36%	651.38%	1,122.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	38.52	41.02	43.69	46.53	49.55	52.77	54.35
Payout Ratio	32.95%	44.36%	55.77%	67.18%	78.59%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.69	18.20	24.36	31.26	38.94	47.49	50.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.26%	7.26%	7.26%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	16.81	16.97	17.12
Year 2 PV (M)	20.78	21.18	21.58
Year 3 PV (M)	24.62	25.33	26.05
Year 4 PV (M)	28.33	29.42	30.54
Year 5 PV (M)	31.91	33.45	35.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	792.54	830.82	870.56
Equity Value (M)	914.99	957.16	1,000.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	31.70	31.70	31.70
Fair Value	$28.86	$30.20	$31.58
Upside / Downside	46.00%	52.73%	59.71%

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North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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