Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Metlen Energy & Metals S.A. (MYTIL.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$876.71 - $1,726.16$1,617.67
Multi-Stage$264.47 - $289.69$276.85
Blended Fair Value$947.26
Current Price$33.52
Upside2,725.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.15%38.70%1.511.210.510.370.360.380.330.040.020.10
YoY Growth--25.37%138.93%35.13%4.64%-4.85%13.34%798.77%64.43%-77.45%73.09%
Dividend Yield--4.52%3.25%2.49%2.47%3.00%3.84%4.55%0.40%0.36%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,203.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)237.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)966.06
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)240.71150.4490.27
Cash Retained (M)966.06966.06966.06
(-) Cash Required (M)-240.71-150.44-90.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)725.35815.62875.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.66138.66138.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.235.886.32
LTM Dividend per Share1.711.711.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.235.886.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.947.598.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$876.71$1,617.67$1,726.16
Upside / Downside2,515.49%4,725.98%5,049.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,203.541,281.771,365.081,453.811,548.311,648.951,698.42
Payout Ratio19.73%33.79%47.84%61.89%75.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)237.48433.05653.04899.801,175.881,484.051,571.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)403.42407.25411.07
Year 2 PV (M)566.75577.54588.44
Year 3 PV (M)727.48748.36769.64
Year 4 PV (M)885.65919.71954.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,041.291,091.581,143.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,047.3434,643.5436,300.83
Equity Value (M)36,671.9338,387.9840,168.53
Shares Outstanding (M)138.66138.66138.66
Fair Value$264.47$276.85$289.69
Upside / Downside688.99%725.91%764.22%

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