Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MRS Logística S.A. (MRSA3B.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$406.88 - $860.58$806.49
Multi-Stage$129.24 - $141.56$135.29
Blended Fair Value$470.89
Current Price$27.80
Upside1,593.85%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.84%2.49%0.820.590.480.290.680.710.630.570.200.51
YoY Growth--37.26%24.95%62.70%-57.28%-3.50%13.09%10.46%182.28%-60.95%-19.32%
Dividend Yield--2.63%2.12%1.83%0.76%1.34%3.55%8.90%9.46%3.24%6.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,511.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)284.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,226.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)302.29188.93113.36
Cash Retained (M)1,226.451,226.451,226.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-302.29-188.93-113.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)924.171,037.521,113.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)349.28349.28349.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.652.973.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.652.973.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.463.794.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$406.88$806.49$860.58
Upside / Downside1,363.61%2,801.05%2,995.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,511.441,609.691,714.321,825.751,944.422,070.812,132.93
Payout Ratio18.86%33.08%47.31%61.54%75.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)284.99532.56811.101,123.611,473.311,863.731,972.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)495.83500.53505.23
Year 2 PV (M)703.10716.49730.01
Year 3 PV (M)906.83932.86959.39
Year 4 PV (M)1,107.081,149.651,193.44
Year 5 PV (M)1,303.881,366.861,432.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,625.7642,588.0044,625.34
Equity Value (M)45,142.4847,254.4049,445.66
Shares Outstanding (M)349.28349.28349.28
Fair Value$129.24$135.29$141.56
Upside / Downside364.90%386.65%409.22%

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