DDM Analysis: MERC4.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.77 - $15.88	$12.51
Multi-Stage	$17.20 - $18.90	$18.03
Blended Fair Value	$15.27
Current Price	$12.30
Upside	24.16%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.51%	0.00%	0.22	0.08	0.08	0.10	0.12	0.17	0.22	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	182.21%	-5.81%	-12.61%	-21.07%	-28.67%	-23.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.34%	1.13%	1.29%	1.18%	1.16%	1.76%	2.92%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	36.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	12.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)	24.40

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	7.32	4.57	2.74
Cash Retained (M)	24.40	24.40	24.40
(-) Cash Required (M)	-7.32	-4.57	-2.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.08	19.83	21.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	41.00	41.00	41.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.48	0.53
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.42	0.48	0.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.71	0.78	0.83
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-0.25%	0.75%	1.75%
Fair Value	$9.77	$12.51	$15.88
Upside / Downside	-20.56%	1.72%	29.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	36.58	36.85	37.13	37.41	37.69	37.97	39.11
Payout Ratio	33.30%	44.64%	55.98%	67.32%	78.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	12.18	16.45	20.78	25.18	29.64	34.17	36.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.03%	7.03%	7.03%
Growth Rate	-0.25%	0.75%	1.75%
Year 1 PV (M)	15.22	15.37	15.52
Year 2 PV (M)	17.78	18.14	18.50
Year 3 PV (M)	19.93	20.54	21.15
Year 4 PV (M)	21.70	22.59	23.50
Year 5 PV (M)	23.14	24.32	25.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	607.20	638.25	670.56
Equity Value (M)	704.97	739.21	774.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	41.00	41.00	41.00
Fair Value	$17.20	$18.03	$18.90
Upside / Downside	39.81%	46.60%	53.66%

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KKRS	KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4.	2.77%	$0.49	7.61%
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Mercantil Financeira S.A. - Crédito, Financiamento e Investimento (MERC4.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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