Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.07 - $15.92$13.44
Multi-Stage$17.40 - $19.14$18.25
Blended Fair Value$15.84
Current Price$13.62
Upside16.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.200.400.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-49.40%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.04%5.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)326.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.2040.7524.45
Cash Retained (M)290.00290.00290.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.20-40.75-24.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)224.80249.25265.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.99206.99206.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.201.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.261.381.46
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.07$13.44$15.92
Upside / Downside-18.71%-1.34%16.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)326.00322.74319.51316.32313.15310.02319.32
Payout Ratio11.04%26.83%42.63%58.42%74.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0086.61136.19184.78232.39279.02295.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.15%9.15%9.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)78.5479.3480.14
Year 2 PV (M)112.01114.31116.63
Year 3 PV (M)137.83142.09146.44
Year 4 PV (M)157.19163.71170.42
Year 5 PV (M)171.17180.08189.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,944.943,098.293,257.96
Equity Value (M)3,601.683,777.823,960.96
Shares Outstanding (M)206.99206.99206.99
Fair Value$17.40$18.25$19.14
Upside / Downside27.75%34.00%40.50%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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