Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,354.37 - $5,487.68$5,142.76
Multi-Stage$879.08 - $963.06$920.29
Blended Fair Value$3,031.52
Current Price$130.00
Upside2,231.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.97%9.60%5.001.001.000.000.001.001.003.005.002.50
YoY Growth--400.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-66.64%-40.05%100.00%25.00%
Dividend Yield--6.17%1.12%1.05%0.00%0.00%2.00%1.01%2.91%3.36%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)118,008.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)21,383.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)96,625.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23,601.6614,751.048,850.62
Cash Retained (M)96,625.0296,625.0296,625.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-23,601.66-14,751.04-8,850.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)73,023.3681,873.9887,774.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,276.664,276.664,276.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share17.0719.1420.52
LTM Dividend per Share5.005.005.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share17.0719.1420.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend22.0724.1425.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,354.37$5,142.76$5,487.68
Upside / Downside2,480.29%3,855.97%4,121.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)118,008.29125,678.83133,847.96142,548.07151,813.70161,681.59166,532.04
Payout Ratio18.12%32.50%46.87%61.25%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)21,383.2840,840.7462,737.3387,307.93114,807.64145,513.43154,042.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.19%6.19%6.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38,097.4038,458.5138,819.62
Year 2 PV (M)54,592.0655,631.8856,681.52
Year 3 PV (M)70,869.4072,903.8174,976.78
Year 4 PV (M)86,931.5890,274.7293,713.38
Year 5 PV (M)102,780.70107,745.05112,899.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,406,230.623,570,752.833,741,571.70
Equity Value (M)3,759,501.763,935,766.804,118,662.38
Shares Outstanding (M)4,276.664,276.664,276.66
Fair Value$879.08$920.29$963.06
Upside / Downside576.21%607.92%640.81%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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