DDM Analysis: ESNT

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$233.31 - $1,356.28	$433.20
Multi-Stage	$135.72 - $148.48	$141.98
Blended Fair Value	$287.59
Current Price	$63.56
Upside	352.47%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	32.10%	0.00%	1.15	1.03	0.89	0.75	0.67	0.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	11.13%	15.29%	18.53%	11.98%	136.51%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.98%	1.75%	2.23%	1.83%	1.42%	1.08%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	702.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	121.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)	580.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	140.58	87.86	52.72
Cash Retained (M)	580.92	580.92	580.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-140.58	-87.86	-52.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	440.34	493.06	528.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	103.07	103.07	103.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share	4.27	4.78	5.12
LTM Dividend per Share	1.18	1.18	1.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share	4.27	4.78	5.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	5.46	5.97	6.31
WACC / Discount Rate	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$233.31	$433.20	$1,356.28
Upside / Downside	267.07%	581.56%	2,033.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	702.89	748.57	797.23	849.05	904.24	963.02	991.91
Payout Ratio	17.35%	31.88%	46.41%	60.94%	75.47%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	121.97	238.66	370.01	517.42	682.44	866.71	917.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.97%	7.97%	7.97%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	218.98	221.05	223.13
Year 2 PV (M)	311.48	317.42	323.41
Year 3 PV (M)	399.65	411.12	422.81
Year 4 PV (M)	483.62	502.22	521.35
Year 5 PV (M)	563.55	590.77	619.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	12,010.86	12,590.99	13,193.32
Equity Value (M)	13,988.15	14,633.58	15,303.06
Shares Outstanding (M)	103.07	103.07	103.07
Fair Value	$135.72	$141.98	$148.48
Upside / Downside	113.53%	123.38%	133.60%

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Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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