Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Clas Ohlson AB (publ) (CLAS-B.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$273.12 - $584.47$388.99
Multi-Stage$315.21 - $345.63$330.13
Blended Fair Value$359.56
Current Price$341.00
Upside5.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-7.38%-1.05%4.221.4912.916.216.206.206.196.195.675.19
YoY Growth--183.68%-88.47%108.03%0.10%0.00%0.10%0.03%9.12%9.27%10.58%
Dividend Yield--1.24%0.88%15.06%5.40%7.02%6.27%7.13%8.00%3.42%3.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)944.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)269.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)674.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.80118.0070.80
Cash Retained (M)674.60674.60674.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.80-118.00-70.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)485.80556.60603.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)63.7963.7963.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.628.739.47
LTM Dividend per Share4.224.224.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.628.739.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend11.8412.9513.69
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Fair Value$273.12$388.99$584.47
Upside / Downside-19.91%14.07%71.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)944.00979.131,015.571,053.371,092.571,133.231,167.23
Payout Ratio28.54%40.83%53.12%65.42%77.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)269.40399.78539.50689.06849.011,019.911,079.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.17%7.17%7.17%
Growth Rate2.72%3.72%4.72%
Year 1 PV (M)369.43373.02376.62
Year 2 PV (M)460.68469.69478.79
Year 3 PV (M)543.71559.74576.09
Year 4 PV (M)619.04643.50668.68
Year 5 PV (M)687.18721.29756.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,427.1918,292.1419,191.09
Equity Value (M)20,107.2221,059.3822,048.01
Shares Outstanding (M)63.7963.7963.79
Fair Value$315.21$330.13$345.63
Upside / Downside-7.56%-3.19%1.36%

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