DDM Analysis: CFN.LS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.72 - $1.02	$0.87
Multi-Stage	$1.09 - $1.19	$1.14
Blended Fair Value	$1.00
Current Price	$22.55
Upside	-95.55%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	0.00%	27.10%	0.11	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	266.66%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-25.00%	100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.14%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.11%	0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	11.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)	8.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.26	1.41	0.85
Cash Retained (M)	8.24	8.24	8.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.26	-1.41	-0.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	5.97	6.82	7.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	102.57	102.57	102.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.07	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$0.72	$0.87	$1.02
Upside / Downside	-96.80%	-96.15%	-95.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	11.31	11.20	11.09	10.98	10.87	10.76	11.08
Payout Ratio	27.20%	39.76%	52.32%	64.88%	77.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.08	4.45	5.80	7.12	8.42	9.68	10.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	4.01	4.05	4.09
Year 2 PV (M)	4.70	4.79	4.89
Year 3 PV (M)	5.19	5.35	5.51
Year 4 PV (M)	5.52	5.75	5.98
Year 5 PV (M)	5.71	6.01	6.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	86.42	90.92	95.60
Equity Value (M)	111.55	116.87	122.40
Shares Outstanding (M)	102.57	102.57	102.57
Fair Value	$1.09	$1.14	$1.19
Upside / Downside	-95.18%	-94.95%	-94.71%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Cofina, SGPS, S.A. (CFN.LS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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