Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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The a2 Milk Company Limited (A2M.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.66 - $5.43$4.50
Multi-Stage$6.68 - $7.36$7.01
Blended Fair Value$5.76
Current Price$8.64
Upside-33.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.080.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)331.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)61.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)269.53
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)66.2141.3824.83
Cash Retained (M)269.53269.53269.53
(-) Cash Required (M)-66.21-41.38-24.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)203.31228.14244.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)727.86727.86727.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.280.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.66$4.50$5.43
Upside / Downside-57.69%-47.91%-37.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)331.07327.76324.48321.23318.02314.84324.29
Payout Ratio18.59%32.87%47.15%61.44%75.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)61.54107.74153.00197.35240.80283.36299.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)98.9799.98100.99
Year 2 PV (M)129.12131.77134.45
Year 3 PV (M)153.00157.73162.56
Year 4 PV (M)171.50178.61185.94
Year 5 PV (M)185.40195.05205.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,127.334,342.254,566.03
Equity Value (M)4,865.325,105.395,355.07
Shares Outstanding (M)727.86727.86727.86
Fair Value$6.68$7.01$7.36
Upside / Downside-22.63%-18.82%-14.85%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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