Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Montage Technology Co., Ltd. (688008.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.39 - $35.66$27.68
Multi-Stage$30.47 - $33.45$31.93
Blended Fair Value$29.81
Current Price$154.80
Upside-80.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.96%0.00%0.300.300.300.300.300.260.210.000.000.00
YoY Growth---0.94%0.73%-0.11%0.11%15.95%21.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.65%0.43%0.44%0.49%0.32%0.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,065.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)443.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,622.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)413.20258.25154.95
Cash Retained (M)1,622.851,622.851,622.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-413.20-258.25-154.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,209.651,364.601,467.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.911,141.911,141.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.061.201.29
LTM Dividend per Share0.390.390.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.061.201.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.581.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Fair Value$21.39$27.68$35.66
Upside / Downside-86.18%-82.12%-76.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,065.992,106.462,147.722,189.792,232.682,276.422,344.71
Payout Ratio21.45%35.16%48.87%62.58%76.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)443.14740.621,049.581,370.361,703.312,048.782,168.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate0.96%1.96%2.96%
Year 1 PV (M)680.35687.09693.83
Year 2 PV (M)885.71903.34921.15
Year 3 PV (M)1,062.301,094.191,126.70
Year 4 PV (M)1,212.961,261.731,311.96
Year 5 PV (M)1,340.241,407.951,478.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,614.9831,111.0132,666.90
Equity Value (M)34,796.5536,465.3138,198.90
Shares Outstanding (M)1,141.911,141.911,141.91
Fair Value$30.47$31.93$33.45
Upside / Downside-80.32%-79.37%-78.39%

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