Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Orchestra Holdings Inc. (6533.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,179.35 - $3,745.81$3,510.37
Multi-Stage$1,388.02 - $1,521.95$1,453.74
Blended Fair Value$2,482.06
Current Price$753.00
Upside229.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.92%0.00%10.079.028.037.005.624.420.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.61%12.31%14.68%24.67%27.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.21%0.83%0.47%0.23%0.18%0.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)183.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)106.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)77.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.7522.9713.78
Cash Retained (M)77.7777.7777.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.75-22.97-13.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.0154.8063.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9.769.769.76
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.205.626.56
LTM Dividend per Share10.8610.8610.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.205.626.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend15.0716.4817.42
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,179.35$3,510.37$3,745.81
Upside / Downside322.22%366.19%397.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)183.77195.71208.43221.98236.41251.78259.33
Payout Ratio57.68%64.15%70.61%77.07%83.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)106.00125.54147.17171.09197.49226.60239.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.44%4.44%4.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)119.08120.21121.33
Year 2 PV (M)132.41134.93137.48
Year 3 PV (M)146.00150.19154.46
Year 4 PV (M)159.85166.00172.33
Year 5 PV (M)173.98182.38191.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,811.1813,429.9714,072.43
Equity Value (M)13,542.5014,183.6814,849.14
Shares Outstanding (M)9.769.769.76
Fair Value$1,388.02$1,453.74$1,521.95
Upside / Downside84.33%93.06%102.12%

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