Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jinan Shengquan Group Share Holding Co., Ltd. (605589.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$125.58 - $252.84$236.95
Multi-Stage$39.14 - $42.83$40.95
Blended Fair Value$138.95
Current Price$33.89
Upside310.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.78%27.21%0.430.190.190.240.130.080.170.230.160.06
YoY Growth--128.12%1.05%-20.00%86.14%50.00%-50.00%-28.16%50.00%166.67%50.00%
Dividend Yield--1.53%0.99%0.96%0.81%0.37%0.24%0.49%0.68%0.45%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,046.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)469.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)577.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)209.35130.8578.51
Cash Retained (M)577.15577.15577.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-209.35-130.85-78.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)367.80446.31498.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)823.36823.36823.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.540.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.570.570.57
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.540.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.021.111.18
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$125.58$236.95$252.84
Upside / Downside270.55%599.16%646.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,046.771,114.811,187.271,264.441,346.631,434.161,477.19
Payout Ratio44.86%53.89%62.92%71.95%80.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)469.61600.78747.01909.711,090.401,290.751,366.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)559.58564.88570.19
Year 2 PV (M)648.06660.41672.87
Year 3 PV (M)735.09756.20777.70
Year 4 PV (M)820.68852.25884.71
Year 5 PV (M)904.85948.56993.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,555.7929,935.0531,367.09
Equity Value (M)32,224.0633,717.3335,266.48
Shares Outstanding (M)823.36823.36823.36
Fair Value$39.14$40.95$42.83
Upside / Downside15.48%20.83%26.39%

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