Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China Tobacco International (HK) Company Limited (6055.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: TobaccoSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$166.41 - $489.34$458.58
Multi-Stage$66.26 - $72.55$69.35
Blended Fair Value$263.97
Current Price$30.75
Upside758.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.00%0.00%0.470.200.170.130.220.280.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--135.00%17.65%26.58%-37.83%-22.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.98%2.05%1.46%0.86%1.45%1.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,701.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)325.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,376.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)340.38212.74127.64
Cash Retained (M)1,376.821,376.821,376.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-340.38-212.74-127.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,036.441,164.081,249.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)691.68691.68691.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.501.681.81
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.501.681.81
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.972.152.28
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$166.41$458.58$489.34
Upside / Downside441.16%1,391.33%1,491.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,701.911,812.531,930.352,055.822,189.452,331.762,401.72
Payout Ratio19.10%33.28%47.46%61.64%75.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)325.09603.23916.161,267.221,660.052,098.592,221.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)559.79565.10570.41
Year 2 PV (M)788.97803.99819.16
Year 3 PV (M)1,012.701,041.771,071.40
Year 4 PV (M)1,231.101,278.441,327.14
Year 5 PV (M)1,444.251,514.011,586.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)40,792.8842,763.1944,808.91
Equity Value (M)45,829.7047,966.5150,183.46
Shares Outstanding (M)691.68691.68691.68
Fair Value$66.26$69.35$72.55
Upside / Downside115.47%125.52%135.94%

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