DDM Analysis: 603856.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$10.97 - $21.52	$15.14
Multi-Stage	$8.29 - $9.05	$8.66
Blended Fair Value	$11.90
Current Price	$11.51
Upside	3.39%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.67%	13.98%	0.29	0.17	0.15	0.36	0.23	0.17	0.14	0.05	0.05	0.09
YoY Growth	-	-	72.35%	12.76%	-58.44%	57.65%	30.39%	27.19%	170.67%	-2.17%	-39.70%	9.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.56%	1.57%	1.29%	2.50%	1.46%	1.56%	1.08%	0.38%	0.43%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	174.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37.44
(=) Cash Retained (M)	137.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34.94	21.84	13.10
Cash Retained (M)	137.28	137.28	137.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34.94	-21.84	-13.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	102.34	115.44	124.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	268.46	268.46	268.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.38	0.43	0.46
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.38	0.43	0.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.52	0.57	0.60
WACC / Discount Rate	10.51%	10.51%	10.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$10.97	$15.14	$21.52
Upside / Downside	-4.68%	31.51%	87.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	174.72	186.08	198.17	211.05	224.77	239.38	246.56
Payout Ratio	21.43%	35.14%	48.86%	62.57%	76.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37.44	65.39	96.82	132.06	171.47	215.44	228.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.51%	10.51%	10.51%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	58.62	59.18	59.73
Year 2 PV (M)	77.80	79.29	80.78
Year 3 PV (M)	95.13	97.86	100.64
Year 4 PV (M)	110.72	114.98	119.36
Year 5 PV (M)	124.71	130.73	136.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,758.68	1,843.63	1,931.82
Equity Value (M)	2,225.67	2,325.67	2,429.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	268.46	268.46	268.46
Fair Value	$8.29	$8.66	$9.05
Upside / Downside	-27.97%	-24.74%	-21.38%

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Sector

Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co., Ltd. (603856.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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