DDM Analysis: 603586.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.91 - $14.60	$11.44
Multi-Stage	$17.61 - $19.35	$18.46
Blended Fair Value	$14.95
Current Price	$19.60
Upside	-23.71%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	17.44%	0.36%	0.46	0.52	0.06	0.76	0.65	0.21	0.44	0.48	0.37	0.36
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.77%	738.71%	-91.75%	15.68%	216.44%	-52.75%	-8.37%	28.87%	3.40%	-19.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.15%	3.54%	0.41%	6.75%	4.52%	1.22%	2.70%	2.24%	1.20%	1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	157.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	80.52
(=) Cash Retained (M)	76.84

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.47	19.67	11.80
Cash Retained (M)	76.84	76.84	76.84
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.47	-19.67	-11.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	45.37	57.17	65.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	196.99	196.99	196.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.29	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.29	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.64	0.70	0.74
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.60%	0.40%	1.40%
Fair Value	$8.91	$11.44	$14.60
Upside / Downside	-54.56%	-41.61%	-25.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	157.36	158.00	158.64	159.28	159.93	160.58	165.39
Payout Ratio	51.17%	58.94%	66.70%	74.47%	82.23%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	80.52	93.12	105.82	118.62	131.52	144.52	152.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.60%	0.40%	1.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	86.53	87.41	88.28
Year 2 PV (M)	91.38	93.23	95.09
Year 3 PV (M)	95.19	98.09	101.05
Year 4 PV (M)	98.08	102.09	106.21
Year 5 PV (M)	100.16	105.30	110.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,997.09	3,150.91	3,310.98
Equity Value (M)	3,468.43	3,637.01	3,812.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	196.99	196.99	196.99
Fair Value	$17.61	$18.46	$19.35
Upside / Downside	-10.17%	-5.80%	-1.26%

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Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.,Ltd (603586.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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