Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hexing Electrical Co.,Ltd. (603556.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$142.08 - $387.34$362.99
Multi-Stage$54.54 - $59.69$57.07
Blended Fair Value$210.03
Current Price$27.84
Upside654.41%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.78%16.64%1.150.790.360.580.650.400.300.240.190.34
YoY Growth--46.59%115.34%-36.68%-11.68%64.58%31.84%26.97%21.98%-43.15%38.18%
Dividend Yield--3.37%2.15%1.68%4.91%4.71%2.81%1.87%0.88%0.52%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)942.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)355.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)587.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)188.57117.8570.71
Cash Retained (M)587.04587.04587.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-188.57-117.85-70.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)398.47469.18516.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)484.09484.09484.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.820.971.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.730.730.73
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.820.971.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.561.701.80
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$142.08$362.99$387.34
Upside / Downside410.35%1,203.85%1,291.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)942.831,004.111,069.381,138.891,212.911,291.751,330.50
Payout Ratio37.74%48.19%58.64%69.09%79.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)355.79483.87627.10786.91964.841,162.581,230.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)449.41453.67457.93
Year 2 PV (M)540.96551.26561.66
Year 3 PV (M)630.47648.57667.01
Year 4 PV (M)717.98745.59773.99
Year 5 PV (M)803.51842.32882.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,259.9324,383.3925,549.85
Equity Value (M)26,402.2527,624.8028,893.06
Shares Outstanding (M)484.09484.09484.09
Fair Value$54.54$57.07$59.69
Upside / Downside95.91%104.98%114.39%

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