DDM Analysis: 603257.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.87 - $18.37	$14.89
Multi-Stage	$27.53 - $30.27	$28.87
Blended Fair Value	$21.88
Current Price	$63.56
Upside	-65.57%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.56	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.56%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	134.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	89.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	45.43

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	26.97	16.86	10.11
Cash Retained (M)	45.43	45.43	45.43
(-) Cash Required (M)	-26.97	-16.86	-10.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.46	28.57	35.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	105.74	105.74	105.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.27	0.33
LTM Dividend per Share	0.85	0.85	0.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.27	0.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.02	1.12	1.18
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$11.87	$14.89	$18.37
Upside / Downside	-81.32%	-76.58%	-71.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	134.85	133.50	132.16	130.84	129.53	128.24	132.08
Payout Ratio	66.31%	71.05%	75.79%	80.52%	85.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	89.42	94.85	100.16	105.36	110.44	115.41	122.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	88.22	89.13	90.03
Year 2 PV (M)	86.66	88.44	90.24
Year 3 PV (M)	84.80	87.42	90.09
Year 4 PV (M)	82.68	86.11	89.64
Year 5 PV (M)	80.37	84.56	88.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,487.77	2,617.32	2,752.20
Equity Value (M)	2,910.51	3,052.96	3,201.11
Shares Outstanding (M)	105.74	105.74	105.74
Fair Value	$27.53	$28.87	$30.27
Upside / Downside	-56.69%	-54.57%	-52.37%

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China Nerin Engineering Co Ltd (603257.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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