Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Yuanli Chemical Group Co.,Ltd. (603217.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$163.39 - $192.50$180.40
Multi-Stage$321.55 - $353.06$337.01
Blended Fair Value$258.70
Current Price$22.83
Upside1,033.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%12.49%0.390.500.500.230.260.000.040.040.080.11
YoY Growth---20.91%-0.01%114.94%-11.33%0.00%-100.00%-5.48%-48.45%-25.65%-13.06%
Dividend Yield--2.29%3.05%1.62%0.80%1.67%0.00%0.11%0.11%0.22%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)202.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)25.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40.5225.3215.19
Cash Retained (M)177.44177.44177.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-40.52-25.32-15.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.92152.11162.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.31209.31209.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.730.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.730.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate-17.45%-17.45%-17.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$163.39$180.40$192.50
Upside / Downside615.66%690.18%743.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)202.60215.76229.79244.73260.63277.57285.90
Payout Ratio12.42%27.93%43.45%58.97%74.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)25.1660.2799.84144.31194.13249.82264.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-17.45%-17.45%-17.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72.3373.0173.70
Year 2 PV (M)143.78146.52149.29
Year 3 PV (M)249.38256.54263.84
Year 4 PV (M)402.59418.07434.00
Year 5 PV (M)621.71651.74682.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)65,814.5868,993.4472,293.98
Equity Value (M)67,304.3770,539.3373,897.71
Shares Outstanding (M)209.31209.31209.31
Fair Value$321.55$337.01$353.06
Upside / Downside1,308.47%1,376.17%1,446.45%

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