Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited (603128.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.71 - $56.70$53.14
Multi-Stage$8.29 - $9.07$8.67
Blended Fair Value$30.90
Current Price$5.97
Upside417.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.50%25.91%0.260.210.230.240.040.070.070.040.040.04
YoY Growth--25.12%-8.18%-6.93%542.20%-48.98%13.69%50.34%-1.52%24.40%36.47%
Dividend Yield--4.57%3.00%2.38%2.08%0.29%1.74%1.01%0.76%0.62%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)373.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)255.66
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.6346.6427.99
Cash Retained (M)255.66255.66255.66
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.63-46.64-27.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)181.03209.01227.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,308.841,308.841,308.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.160.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.71$53.14$56.70
Upside / Downside297.14%790.06%849.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)373.16397.41423.25450.76480.06511.26526.60
Payout Ratio31.49%43.19%54.89%66.60%78.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.50171.65232.33300.18375.87460.13487.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.63161.15162.66
Year 2 PV (M)200.95204.78208.64
Year 3 PV (M)241.47248.40255.47
Year 4 PV (M)281.20292.01303.13
Year 5 PV (M)320.14335.61351.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,642.0410,107.7510,591.29
Equity Value (M)10,845.4411,349.7011,872.85
Shares Outstanding (M)1,308.841,308.841,308.84
Fair Value$8.29$8.67$9.07
Upside / Downside38.80%45.25%51.95%

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