DDM Analysis: 603053.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.03 - $7.78	$6.31
Multi-Stage	$11.05 - $12.19	$11.61
Blended Fair Value	$8.96
Current Price	$10.40
Upside	-13.86%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.95%	0.00%	0.34	0.33	0.33	0.27	0.26	0.12	0.29	0.67	0.42	0.45
YoY Growth	-	-	1.40%	1.33%	21.39%	3.76%	117.09%	-59.07%	-56.17%	58.11%	-5.27%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.60%	3.43%	3.43%	2.88%	2.29%	0.81%	1.95%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	485.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	37.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	448.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	97.04	60.65	36.39
Cash Retained (M)	448.02	448.02	448.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-97.04	-60.65	-36.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)	350.98	387.37	411.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	893.72	893.72	893.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.43	0.46
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.43	0.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.43	0.48	0.50
WACC / Discount Rate	6.46%	6.46%	6.46%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$5.03	$6.31	$7.78
Upside / Downside	-51.60%	-39.35%	-25.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	485.22	480.36	475.56	470.80	466.10	461.44	475.28
Payout Ratio	7.67%	24.13%	40.60%	57.07%	73.53%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	37.20	115.92	193.07	268.67	342.74	415.29	439.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.46%	6.46%	6.46%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	107.79	108.89	109.99
Year 2 PV (M)	166.94	170.37	173.83
Year 3 PV (M)	216.01	222.69	229.51
Year 4 PV (M)	256.23	266.85	277.80
Year 5 PV (M)	288.70	303.74	319.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,842.70	9,303.16	9,782.61
Equity Value (M)	9,878.39	10,375.70	10,893.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	893.72	893.72	893.72
Fair Value	$11.05	$11.61	$12.19
Upside / Downside	6.28%	11.63%	17.20%

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Chengdu Gas Group Corporation Ltd. (603053.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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