Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Maysta Chemical Co., Ltd. (603041.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.48 - $35.31$33.09
Multi-Stage$5.57 - $6.09$5.83
Blended Fair Value$19.46
Current Price$12.30
Upside58.20%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.27%0.88%0.210.140.110.190.130.080.090.120.120.09
YoY Growth--45.20%25.90%-40.27%48.79%68.21%-16.53%-25.64%3.79%31.26%-52.79%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.26%0.97%1.61%0.94%0.63%0.75%0.84%0.80%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.333.962.37
Cash Retained (M)9.369.369.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.33-3.96-2.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.025.406.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.31178.31178.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Fair Value$17.48$33.09$35.31
Upside / Downside42.08%169.04%187.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.6633.7235.9138.2340.7143.3644.66
Payout Ratio70.45%74.36%78.27%82.18%86.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.3125.0728.1031.4235.0539.0241.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)23.3623.5823.80
Year 2 PV (M)24.3924.8525.32
Year 3 PV (M)25.4026.1326.87
Year 4 PV (M)26.3927.4128.45
Year 5 PV (M)27.3728.6930.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)866.37908.22951.67
Equity Value (M)993.271,038.871,086.17
Shares Outstanding (M)178.31178.31178.31
Fair Value$5.57$5.83$6.09
Upside / Downside-54.71%-52.63%-50.48%

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