Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Nanjing Tanker Corporation (601975.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas MidstreamSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.14 - $3.20$2.65
Multi-Stage$2.80 - $3.07$2.93
Blended Fair Value$2.79
Current Price$3.04
Upside-8.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-16.08%0.010.010.010.020.020.000.000.030.030.04
YoY Growth---24.20%-7.37%-11.99%-20.04%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-4.70%-30.60%-27.44%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.39%0.40%0.88%0.91%0.00%0.00%0.87%0.91%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,212.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)28.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,183.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)242.45151.5390.92
Cash Retained (M)1,183.511,183.511,183.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-242.45-151.53-90.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)941.051,031.971,092.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,782.074,782.074,782.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.220.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate0.21%1.21%2.21%
Fair Value$2.14$2.65$3.20
Upside / Downside-29.53%-12.98%5.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,212.271,226.981,241.871,256.941,272.191,287.621,326.25
Payout Ratio2.37%19.90%37.42%54.95%72.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)28.76244.15464.75690.68922.011,158.861,226.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate0.21%1.21%2.21%
Year 1 PV (M)220.36222.56224.76
Year 2 PV (M)378.61386.20393.87
Year 3 PV (M)507.83523.19538.85
Year 4 PV (M)611.88636.67662.21
Year 5 PV (M)694.14729.47766.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,968.1411,526.4112,107.18
Equity Value (M)13,380.9614,024.5014,693.10
Shares Outstanding (M)4,782.074,782.074,782.07
Fair Value$2.80$2.93$3.07
Upside / Downside-7.96%-3.53%1.07%

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