Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hubei Donper Electromechanical Group Co., Ltd. (601956.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.90 - $2.92$2.38
Multi-Stage$4.30 - $4.73$4.51
Blended Fair Value$3.44
Current Price$7.42
Upside-53.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS16.50%0.00%0.250.150.040.150.110.110.110.110.000.00
YoY Growth--69.11%252.75%-73.02%42.35%-6.33%5.89%-3.96%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.58%2.90%0.71%2.44%1.18%0.86%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)128.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)80.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)47.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.6316.029.61
Cash Retained (M)47.4147.4147.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.63-16.02-9.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.7831.3937.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)619.94619.94619.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.90$2.38$2.92
Upside / Downside-74.42%-67.99%-60.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)128.15126.87125.60124.34123.10121.87125.52
Payout Ratio63.00%68.40%73.80%79.20%84.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)80.7486.7892.6998.48104.14109.68116.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)80.6381.4582.28
Year 2 PV (M)80.0281.6683.32
Year 3 PV (M)78.9981.4483.93
Year 4 PV (M)77.6280.8384.15
Year 5 PV (M)75.9579.9184.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,271.662,389.952,513.12
Equity Value (M)2,664.882,795.252,930.82
Shares Outstanding (M)619.94619.94619.94
Fair Value$4.30$4.51$4.73
Upside / Downside-42.07%-39.23%-36.29%

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