Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.89 - $24.76$17.65
Multi-Stage$16.76 - $18.38$17.56
Blended Fair Value$17.60
Current Price$13.46
Upside30.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS41.81%-0.68%0.400.160.150.170.160.070.060.050.070.48
YoY Growth--150.90%6.67%-11.76%6.25%128.57%16.67%20.00%-26.47%-85.83%11.63%
Dividend Yield--2.85%0.83%1.03%1.25%1.08%0.60%0.57%0.44%0.54%3.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,901.63
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,706.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,194.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)780.33487.70292.62
Cash Retained (M)2,194.742,194.742,194.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-780.33-487.70-292.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,414.421,707.041,902.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,771.594,771.594,771.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.360.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate2.08%3.08%4.08%
Fair Value$12.89$17.65$24.76
Upside / Downside-4.22%31.10%83.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,901.634,021.904,145.884,273.684,405.424,541.234,677.46
Payout Ratio43.75%53.00%62.25%71.50%80.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,706.882,131.542,580.763,055.653,557.364,087.104,326.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate2.08%3.08%4.08%
Year 1 PV (M)1,967.951,987.232,006.50
Year 2 PV (M)2,199.822,243.132,286.86
Year 3 PV (M)2,404.702,476.072,548.83
Year 4 PV (M)2,584.672,687.452,793.26
Year 5 PV (M)2,741.662,878.603,020.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)68,094.3471,495.5975,031.40
Equity Value (M)79,993.1583,768.0687,687.82
Shares Outstanding (M)4,771.594,771.594,771.59
Fair Value$16.76$17.56$18.38
Upside / Downside24.55%30.43%36.53%

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