DDM Analysis: 601233.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$74.46 - $146.48	$137.27
Multi-Stage	$22.89 - $25.05	$23.95
Blended Fair Value	$80.61
Current Price	$15.01
Upside	437.05%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.41%	20.10%	0.69	0.51	0.33	0.41	0.36	0.29	0.28	0.25	0.11	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	34.81%	54.90%	-18.52%	13.71%	25.48%	1.37%	10.37%	139.28%	25.35%	-23.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.91%	3.64%	2.31%	2.33%	1.73%	2.43%	1.77%	1.62%	0.98%	1.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,743.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	880.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	862.92

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	348.77	217.98	130.79
Cash Retained (M)	862.92	862.92	862.92
(-) Cash Required (M)	-348.77	-217.98	-130.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)	514.15	644.94	732.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,367.66	2,367.66	2,367.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.27	0.31
LTM Dividend per Share	0.37	0.37	0.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.27	0.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.59	0.64	0.68
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$74.46	$137.27	$146.48
Upside / Downside	396.05%	814.52%	875.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,743.83	1,857.18	1,977.90	2,106.46	2,243.38	2,389.20	2,460.88
Payout Ratio	50.52%	58.41%	66.31%	74.21%	82.10%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	880.91	1,084.83	1,311.54	1,563.13	1,841.89	2,150.28	2,276.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,010.62	1,020.20	1,029.78
Year 2 PV (M)	1,138.24	1,159.92	1,181.81
Year 3 PV (M)	1,263.79	1,300.07	1,337.04
Year 4 PV (M)	1,387.30	1,440.66	1,495.53
Year 5 PV (M)	1,508.80	1,581.67	1,657.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	47,894.73	50,208.07	52,609.94
Equity Value (M)	54,203.49	56,710.59	59,311.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,367.66	2,367.66	2,367.66
Fair Value	$22.89	$23.95	$25.05
Upside / Downside	52.52%	59.57%	66.89%

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Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. (601233.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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