Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Heilongjiang Transport Development Co., Ltd. (601188.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.70 - $0.98$0.84
Multi-Stage$1.08 - $1.19$1.13
Blended Fair Value$0.99
Current Price$3.42
Upside-71.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.39%1.58%0.060.060.080.050.160.070.080.070.070.07
YoY Growth--13.76%-25.97%66.07%-71.25%131.88%-15.25%22.77%-4.73%-0.56%27.27%
Dividend Yield--1.97%1.57%2.41%1.43%5.83%2.62%2.27%1.66%1.21%1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)159.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.91
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.9419.9711.98
Cash Retained (M)158.91158.91158.91
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.94-19.97-11.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.97138.95146.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,308.701,308.701,308.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-3.39%-2.39%-1.39%
Fair Value$0.70$0.84$0.98
Upside / Downside-79.40%-75.39%-71.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)159.72155.90152.17148.53144.98141.51145.76
Payout Ratio0.51%18.40%36.30%54.20%72.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.8128.6955.2480.51104.53127.36134.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-3.39%-2.39%-1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)25.8226.0826.35
Year 2 PV (M)44.7345.6646.60
Year 3 PV (M)58.6660.5062.37
Year 4 PV (M)68.5371.4174.38
Year 5 PV (M)75.1379.1083.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,137.121,197.211,259.80
Equity Value (M)1,409.991,479.961,552.75
Shares Outstanding (M)1,308.701,308.701,308.70
Fair Value$1.08$1.13$1.19
Upside / Downside-68.50%-66.93%-65.31%

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