Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.,Ltd. (600916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Luxury GoodsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.52 - $50.62$18.89
Multi-Stage$7.30 - $7.99$7.64
Blended Fair Value$13.26
Current Price$8.38
Upside58.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS48.63%0.00%0.480.300.280.160.070.070.040.190.030.00
YoY Growth--60.23%6.69%75.44%130.00%5.16%57.61%-77.88%485.67%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.47%2.71%2.29%1.34%0.37%0.92%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)432.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)326.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)106.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)86.5154.0732.44
Cash Retained (M)106.07106.07106.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-86.51-54.07-32.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5752.0173.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,679.511,679.511,679.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.25%5.25%6.25%
Fair Value$9.52$18.89$50.62
Upside / Downside13.63%125.42%504.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)432.54455.26479.17504.34530.84558.72575.48
Payout Ratio75.48%78.38%81.29%84.19%87.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)326.46356.84389.50424.61462.33502.85532.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate4.25%5.25%6.25%
Year 1 PV (M)331.85335.03338.22
Year 2 PV (M)336.86343.35349.91
Year 3 PV (M)341.51351.43361.54
Year 4 PV (M)345.81359.27373.12
Year 5 PV (M)349.77366.87384.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,553.8711,069.8411,605.80
Equity Value (M)12,259.6712,825.8013,413.22
Shares Outstanding (M)1,679.511,679.511,679.51
Fair Value$7.30$7.64$7.99
Upside / Downside-12.89%-8.87%-4.70%

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