DDM Analysis: 600864.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.35 - $3.45	$2.88
Multi-Stage	$6.14 - $6.78	$6.45
Blended Fair Value	$4.67
Current Price	$7.35
Upside	-36.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-10.41%	8.03%	0.16	0.17	0.28	0.25	0.34	0.28	0.50	0.23	0.15	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-6.71%	-39.43%	15.44%	-28.09%	23.07%	-44.65%	115.24%	51.59%	36.26%	52.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.64%	3.23%	5.60%	4.43%	5.66%	4.29%	6.28%	3.63%	1.53%	0.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	620.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	185.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	435.76

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	124.16	77.60	46.56
Cash Retained (M)	435.76	435.76	435.76
(-) Cash Required (M)	-124.16	-77.60	-46.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	311.60	358.16	389.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,023.75	2,023.75	2,023.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	-3.78%	-2.78%	-1.78%
Fair Value	$2.35	$2.88	$3.45
Upside / Downside	-68.09%	-60.85%	-53.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	620.82	603.54	586.73	570.39	554.51	539.07	555.24
Payout Ratio	29.81%	41.85%	53.89%	65.92%	77.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	185.06	252.56	316.16	376.02	432.30	485.16	513.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.28%	6.28%	6.28%
Growth Rate	-3.78%	-2.78%	-1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)	235.19	237.63	240.08
Year 2 PV (M)	274.15	279.88	285.67
Year 3 PV (M)	303.63	313.19	322.96
Year 4 PV (M)	325.06	338.78	352.94
Year 5 PV (M)	339.70	357.73	376.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,951.58	11,532.65	12,138.13
Equity Value (M)	12,429.31	13,059.87	13,716.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,023.75	2,023.75	2,023.75
Fair Value	$6.14	$6.45	$6.78
Upside / Downside	-16.44%	-12.20%	-7.79%

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Harbin Hatou Investment Co.,Ltd (600864.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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