Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ENN Natural Gas Co., Ltd. (600803.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$144.56 - $287.66$269.58
Multi-Stage$44.03 - $48.22$46.09
Blended Fair Value$157.83
Current Price$17.98
Upside777.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS73.72%33.32%1.310.740.290.180.080.080.200.190.130.12
YoY Growth--77.16%160.06%61.56%112.54%0.00%-57.63%1.19%45.57%13.83%57.87%
Dividend Yield--6.71%3.94%1.37%1.00%0.47%0.96%1.60%1.65%0.99%0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,427.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)996.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,431.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)885.58553.49332.09
Cash Retained (M)3,431.713,431.713,431.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-885.58-553.49-332.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,546.132,878.233,099.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,061.203,061.203,061.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.830.941.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.161.271.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$144.56$269.58$287.66
Upside / Downside704.00%1,399.35%1,499.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,427.884,715.695,022.215,348.665,696.326,066.586,248.58
Payout Ratio22.50%36.00%49.50%63.00%76.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)996.171,697.562,485.923,369.604,357.665,459.925,779.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,581.301,596.291,611.27
Year 2 PV (M)2,157.072,198.152,239.63
Year 3 PV (M)2,723.592,801.782,881.44
Year 4 PV (M)3,280.993,407.163,536.95
Year 5 PV (M)3,829.354,014.314,206.35
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,207.78127,062.17133,140.61
Equity Value (M)134,780.08141,079.86147,616.25
Shares Outstanding (M)3,061.203,061.203,061.20
Fair Value$44.03$46.09$48.22
Upside / Downside144.87%156.32%168.20%

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