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Definitive Analysis

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Yinchuan Xinhua Commercial (Group) Co., Ltd. (600785.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.92 - $7.41$6.10
Multi-Stage$12.85 - $14.16$13.49
Blended Fair Value$9.80
Current Price$13.07
Upside-25.05%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.41%-2.08%0.320.230.140.160.200.180.110.230.110.10
YoY Growth--38.24%68.79%-12.12%-20.42%10.00%68.98%-53.80%118.59%3.26%-74.37%
Dividend Yield--2.84%1.20%0.81%1.42%1.68%1.28%0.59%1.10%0.44%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)133.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)74.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.7016.6910.01
Cash Retained (M)58.8258.8258.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.70-16.69-10.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.1142.1348.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)227.11227.11227.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.510.54
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-3.08%-2.08%-1.08%
Fair Value$4.92$6.10$7.41
Upside / Downside-62.34%-53.34%-43.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)133.51130.74128.02125.35122.75120.19123.80
Payout Ratio55.95%62.76%69.57%76.38%83.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)74.7082.0589.0695.74102.11108.18114.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-3.08%-2.08%-1.08%
Year 1 PV (M)76.4877.2778.06
Year 2 PV (M)77.3978.9980.62
Year 3 PV (M)77.5579.9882.46
Year 4 PV (M)77.1080.3483.67
Year 5 PV (M)76.1480.1584.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,534.612,668.092,807.14
Equity Value (M)2,919.283,064.823,216.27
Shares Outstanding (M)227.11227.11227.11
Fair Value$12.85$13.49$14.16
Upside / Downside-1.65%3.25%8.35%

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