DDM Analysis: 600738.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.15 - $17.93	$16.77
Multi-Stage	$42.94 - $48.13	$45.48
Blended Fair Value	$31.12
Current Price	$4.97
Upside	526.20%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-48.59%	2.42%	0.07	0.05	0.14	0.05	0.07	2.00	0.62	0.14	0.03	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	38.80%	-62.07%	194.33%	-34.42%	-96.46%	222.41%	354.55%	432.40%	31.59%	-65.56%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.48%	1.19%	1.83%	0.87%	1.14%	34.88%	7.62%	1.74%	0.28%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	80.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	25.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	55.61

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	16.20	10.12	6.07
Cash Retained (M)	55.61	55.61	55.61
(-) Cash Required (M)	-16.20	-10.12	-6.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)	39.41	45.49	49.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	736.03	736.03	736.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.10
WACC / Discount Rate	-34.77%	-34.77%	-34.77%
Growth Rate	-13.92%	-12.92%	-11.92%
Fair Value	$15.15	$16.77	$17.93
Upside / Downside	204.92%	237.38%	260.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	80.99	70.52	61.41	53.47	46.56	40.55	41.76
Payout Ratio	31.33%	43.07%	54.80%	66.53%	78.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	25.38	30.37	33.65	35.58	36.44	36.49	38.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-34.77%	-34.77%	-34.77%
Growth Rate	-13.92%	-12.92%	-11.92%
Year 1 PV (M)	46.03	46.56	47.10
Year 2 PV (M)	77.28	79.09	80.92
Year 3 PV (M)	123.81	128.18	132.65
Year 4 PV (M)	192.19	201.28	210.69
Year 5 PV (M)	291.64	308.97	327.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)	30,872.85	32,708.31	34,630.05
Equity Value (M)	31,603.80	33,472.39	35,428.52
Shares Outstanding (M)	736.03	736.03	736.03
Fair Value	$42.94	$45.48	$48.13
Upside / Downside	763.95%	815.03%	868.50%

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Lanzhou Lishang Guochao Industrial Group Co.,Ltd (600738.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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