DDM Analysis: 600621.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$90.40 - $106.50	$99.81
Multi-Stage	$22.80 - $24.99	$23.88
Blended Fair Value	$61.84
Current Price	$16.57
Upside	273.22%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.42%	10.61%	0.41	0.38	0.47	0.42	0.21	0.14	0.40	0.20	0.27	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	8.48%	-20.27%	12.29%	97.38%	55.53%	-65.34%	98.23%	-25.50%	163.22%	-31.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.90%	2.64%	4.09%	3.43%	1.28%	0.89%	2.35%	1.45%	1.95%	0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	567.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	136.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	430.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	113.41	70.88	42.53
Cash Retained (M)	430.39	430.39	430.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-113.41	-70.88	-42.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	316.98	359.51	387.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,058.86	1,058.86	1,058.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.34	0.37
LTM Dividend per Share	0.13	0.13	0.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.30	0.34	0.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.43	0.47	0.50
WACC / Discount Rate	5.43%	5.43%	5.43%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$90.40	$99.81	$106.50
Upside / Downside	445.55%	502.35%	542.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	567.05	603.91	643.16	684.97	729.49	776.91	800.22
Payout Ratio	24.10%	37.28%	50.46%	63.64%	76.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	136.66	225.14	324.54	435.92	560.40	699.22	740.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.43%	5.43%	5.43%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	211.54	213.55	215.56
Year 2 PV (M)	286.53	291.99	297.50
Year 3 PV (M)	361.62	372.00	382.58
Year 4 PV (M)	436.81	453.61	470.89
Year 5 PV (M)	512.11	536.84	562.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,334.87	23,413.65	24,533.72
Equity Value (M)	24,143.49	25,281.65	26,462.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,058.86	1,058.86	1,058.86
Fair Value	$22.80	$23.88	$24.99
Upside / Downside	37.61%	44.09%	50.83%

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Ticker

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Sector

Shanghai Chinafortune Co., Ltd. (600621.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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