DDM Analysis: 600619.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.34 - $0.50	$0.42
Multi-Stage	$0.59 - $0.65	$0.62
Blended Fair Value	$0.52
Current Price	$24.81
Upside	-97.91%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.22%	-1.94%	0.10	0.12	0.18	0.18	0.16	0.13	0.16	0.13	0.11	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.07%	-35.99%	2.32%	10.40%	27.57%	-22.81%	28.38%	12.83%	10.19%	-12.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.70%	1.92%	2.82%	2.64%	2.14%	1.49%	1.55%	1.21%	0.96%	0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	66.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	61.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4.99

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.29	8.31	4.99
Cash Retained (M)	4.99	4.99	4.99
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.29	-8.31	-4.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-8.31	-3.32	0.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,475.95	1,475.95	1,475.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.00	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.04
WACC / Discount Rate	8.93%	8.93%	8.93%
Growth Rate	-1.48%	-0.48%	0.52%
Fair Value	$0.34	$0.42	$0.50
Upside / Downside	-98.63%	-98.32%	-97.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	66.47	66.15	65.84	65.52	65.21	64.90	66.84
Payout Ratio	92.50%	92.00%	91.50%	91.00%	90.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	61.48	60.86	60.24	59.62	59.01	58.41	61.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.93%	8.93%	8.93%
Growth Rate	-1.48%	-0.48%	0.52%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.31	55.87	56.43
Year 2 PV (M)	49.75	50.77	51.79
Year 3 PV (M)	44.76	46.13	47.54
Year 4 PV (M)	40.26	41.92	43.63
Year 5 PV (M)	36.21	38.09	40.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)	646.70	680.20	715.06
Equity Value (M)	872.99	912.98	954.50
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,475.95	1,475.95	1,475.95
Fair Value	$0.59	$0.62	$0.65
Upside / Downside	-97.62%	-97.51%	-97.39%

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Shanghai Highly (Group) Co., Ltd. (600619.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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