Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co.,Ltd (600595.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.85 - $65.80$61.67
Multi-Stage$33.49 - $36.76$35.09
Blended Fair Value$48.38
Current Price$5.19
Upside832.17%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.50%-13.18%0.080.080.050.050.060.140.250.330.320.32
YoY Growth--2.81%40.38%10.59%-22.76%-55.95%-42.80%-23.23%4.23%-1.67%-0.48%
Dividend Yield--1.91%2.17%1.68%1.19%2.06%8.07%9.35%7.98%5.81%5.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,287.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,058.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)257.42160.8996.53
Cash Retained (M)1,058.941,058.941,058.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-257.42-160.89-96.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)801.52898.05962.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,890.003,890.003,890.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.85$61.67$65.80
Upside / Downside976.12%1,088.17%1,167.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,287.081,370.741,459.841,554.731,655.791,763.411,816.32
Payout Ratio17.73%32.18%46.64%61.09%75.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.14441.11680.80949.791,250.871,587.071,680.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.04%4.04%4.04%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)419.99423.97427.96
Year 2 PV (M)617.18628.93640.80
Year 3 PV (M)819.80843.33867.31
Year 4 PV (M)1,027.981,067.521,108.18
Year 5 PV (M)1,241.841,301.821,364.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)126,153.72132,247.00138,573.47
Equity Value (M)130,280.52136,512.57142,981.82
Shares Outstanding (M)3,890.003,890.003,890.00
Fair Value$33.49$35.09$36.76
Upside / Downside545.30%576.17%608.21%

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