Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co., Ltd (600460.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.43 - $25.76$13.44
Multi-Stage$5.61 - $6.13$5.87
Blended Fair Value$9.65
Current Price$31.44
Upside-69.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.05%12.44%0.110.220.180.090.080.100.080.050.040.05
YoY Growth---47.95%20.27%94.15%19.13%-23.57%32.99%45.39%28.03%-15.68%39.82%
Dividend Yield--0.47%1.09%0.49%0.19%0.32%0.71%0.44%0.33%0.65%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)540.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)178.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)361.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)108.0167.5140.50
Cash Retained (M)361.70361.70361.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-108.01-67.51-40.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)253.68294.19321.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,660.741,660.741,660.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.43$13.44$25.76
Upside / Downside-73.18%-57.26%-18.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)540.05575.16612.54652.36694.76739.92762.12
Payout Ratio33.03%44.42%55.82%67.21%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)178.36255.49341.90438.45546.12665.93704.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.76%8.76%8.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)232.72234.92237.13
Year 2 PV (M)283.66289.06294.52
Year 3 PV (M)331.35340.86350.55
Year 4 PV (M)375.92390.38405.25
Year 5 PV (M)417.53437.70458.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,680.148,051.108,436.25
Equity Value (M)9,321.339,744.0210,182.34
Shares Outstanding (M)1,660.741,660.741,660.74
Fair Value$5.61$5.87$6.13
Upside / Downside-82.15%-81.34%-80.50%

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