Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. (600233.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$96.25 - $230.19$215.72
Multi-Stage$33.67 - $36.85$35.23
Blended Fair Value$125.48
Current Price$18.35
Upside583.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.55%47.40%0.350.270.190.170.150.130.100.120.090.34
YoY Growth--27.86%43.85%13.18%12.91%12.90%35.87%-21.57%34.51%-73.23%4,654.60%
Dividend Yield--2.75%1.74%1.04%0.97%1.33%1.14%0.70%0.75%0.40%2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,958.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,295.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,663.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)791.75494.84296.91
Cash Retained (M)2,663.342,663.342,663.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-791.75-494.84-296.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,871.602,168.502,366.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,420.233,420.233,420.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.550.630.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.011.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$96.25$215.72$230.19
Upside / Downside424.50%1,075.58%1,154.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,958.744,216.064,490.104,781.965,092.795,423.825,586.53
Payout Ratio32.72%44.18%55.63%67.09%78.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,295.401,862.572,498.003,208.174,000.104,881.435,167.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,732.221,748.641,765.06
Year 2 PV (M)2,160.612,201.762,243.31
Year 3 PV (M)2,580.672,654.762,730.24
Year 4 PV (M)2,992.543,107.623,225.99
Year 5 PV (M)3,396.313,560.363,730.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,286.72107,227.21112,356.78
Equity Value (M)115,149.08120,500.35126,052.06
Shares Outstanding (M)3,420.233,420.233,420.23
Fair Value$33.67$35.23$36.85
Upside / Downside83.47%92.00%100.84%

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