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Definitive Analysis

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Tibet Rhodiola Pharmaceutical Holding Co. (600211.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$249.45 - $607.06$568.90
Multi-Stage$88.32 - $96.68$92.42
Blended Fair Value$330.66
Current Price$46.70
Upside608.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS49.96%50.01%1.571.500.310.410.590.210.220.250.090.03
YoY Growth--4.36%391.94%-25.90%-29.84%184.13%-3.90%-12.96%187.20%185.56%10.90%
Dividend Yield--4.12%4.26%0.75%1.22%1.58%1.01%0.93%1.20%0.30%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)981.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)320.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)660.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)196.24122.6573.59
Cash Retained (M)660.40660.40660.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-196.24-122.65-73.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)464.16537.75586.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)321.45321.45321.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.441.671.83
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.441.671.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.442.672.82
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$249.45$568.90$607.06
Upside / Downside434.16%1,118.20%1,199.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)981.201,044.981,112.901,185.241,262.281,344.331,384.66
Payout Ratio32.69%44.16%55.62%67.08%78.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)320.80461.42618.96795.03991.381,209.891,280.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)429.06433.12437.19
Year 2 PV (M)535.18545.38555.67
Year 3 PV (M)639.21657.56676.26
Year 4 PV (M)741.17769.68798.99
Year 5 PV (M)841.10881.72923.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,203.8626,421.2227,685.16
Equity Value (M)28,389.5829,708.6731,077.17
Shares Outstanding (M)321.45321.45321.45
Fair Value$88.32$92.42$96.68
Upside / Downside89.12%97.91%107.02%

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