DDM Analysis: 600125.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.90 - $4.16	$3.51
Multi-Stage	$4.03 - $4.43	$4.23
Blended Fair Value	$3.87
Current Price	$6.35
Upside	-39.05%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.49%	21.98%	0.11	0.08	0.08	0.10	0.11	0.12	0.08	0.06	0.07	0.08
YoY Growth	-	-	39.12%	0.00%	-20.00%	-9.09%	-8.33%	50.00%	33.33%	-14.29%	-12.50%	424.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.97%	1.39%	1.42%	1.97%	1.93%	2.52%	0.90%	0.68%	0.71%	1.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	534.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)	534.14

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	106.86	66.79	40.07
Cash Retained (M)	534.14	534.14	534.14
(-) Cash Required (M)	-106.86	-66.79	-40.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)	427.28	467.35	494.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,305.52	1,305.52	1,305.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.36	0.38
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.36	0.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	-1.20%	-0.20%	0.80%
Fair Value	$2.90	$3.51	$4.16
Upside / Downside	-54.38%	-44.65%	-34.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	534.30	533.22	532.15	531.08	530.01	528.94	544.81
Payout Ratio	0.03%	18.02%	36.02%	54.01%	72.01%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.16	96.11	191.67	286.85	381.64	476.05	503.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.97%	9.97%	9.97%
Growth Rate	-1.20%	-0.20%	0.80%
Year 1 PV (M)	86.52	87.40	88.27
Year 2 PV (M)	155.34	158.50	161.70
Year 3 PV (M)	209.29	215.71	222.26
Year 4 PV (M)	250.68	260.99	271.60
Year 5 PV (M)	281.51	296.04	311.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,277.95	4,498.87	4,728.83
Equity Value (M)	5,261.29	5,517.51	5,783.84
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,305.52	1,305.52	1,305.52
Fair Value	$4.03	$4.23	$4.43
Upside / Downside	-36.54%	-33.44%	-30.23%

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China Railway Tielong Container Logistics Co., Ltd (600125.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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